I think I have gotten things straightened out. This was a combination of user and hardware failures.
Out daemon runs on a VM and needed to be re-booted a few times to finally get the ‘kinks’ out. Additionally I had inadvertently set the logging level too high to show any activity whatsoever. So, even when it started working correctly, I thought it was still broken. This was super frustrating and totally my fault.
We had been experiencing severely degraded trigger performance and I was trying to see if some tweaks to the .conf could help. Turned out it was a persistent network/VM issue that I was mis-interpreting as an issue with the daemon.
Several reboots later, and setting logging back to a useful level seems to have straightened things out. I set the event numbers back in time to before the issues started and now that it is caught up I think all is well.
Thanks to everyone for playing along we me.